What are the chances of getting a breakthrough case in San Francisco?

The New York Times esteem in its Tuesday newsletter that your chances of finding a tool case – that is, grab KOVID-19 if you are vaccinated – in San Francisco is about 1 in 10,000.

San Francisco is a well-vaccinated city with 80% of residents 12 and older completing a series of vaccines. Experts said the probability of a tool case in SF is lower than in other parts of the country where vaccine rates are lower and where the virus is circulating more widely.

This estimate was extrapolated to new data to provide a clearer picture of the impact from the delta variant, the most common COVID-19 strain in the US.

Using detailed data on vaccination status infections from Utah, Virginia and King County in Washington state, the Times found that in those places, one in 5,000 people who tested positive for COVID daily in recent weeks.

“The chances are surely higher in the places with the worst Covid outbreaks, such as the Southeast,” the Times said. “And in places with far fewer cases – such as the Northeast, as well as Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco areas – the odds are lower, probably less than 1 in 10,000.”

Dr. Monica Gandhi, an expert in infectious diseases at UCSF, agreed the odds in San Francisco are lower.

Gandhi wrote in an email. “Given our declining cases in the city, I think the rate is less likely than 1 in 10,000 now in the city of San Francisco.” “I don’t know what it is exactly and essential workers and people in living environments are likely to have a higher chance of a breakthrough.”

He also said the probability is probably about the same across the nine-county bay area.

To put that into perspective, Gandhi noted the chance of finding a tool case is similar to confronting rhinovirus, RSV or other common cold viruses that are circulating at higher rates this year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (and circulating earlier than usual).

The chances of getting a tool case in the San Francisco Bay Area are less than in other parts of the country where vaccine rates are lower and where the virus is circulating more widely.

“Our numbers (positivity tests specifically) [are] decreased across the Bay area, ”Gandhi wrote.

Dr. Ashish Jha, a dean and professor at Brown University School of Public Health, commented on the Times article Twitter and wrote that he thinks in lower infection states like Massachusetts or Rhode Island, the risk is “probably closer to 1 in 20,000.”

California has recorded 124.3 new cases per 100,000 in the last seven days, while Massachusetts has seen 108.7 and Rhode Island 133.8, according to the CDC done tracker.

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